13 thoughts on “Billion Dollar Dart Throwing”

  1. Also as advertising, branding, marketing and sales as we know it now is disintegrating. Cluelessness aside, selling as we know it now is going to change totally, I do not believe we are going to add a few billion easily influencable buyers anymore.

  2. The question Google and Facebook have been answering over the last 10 years is how bad they can make the user experience of finding stuff, socializing, sharing photos, etc., before people will revolt. How much noise can they add to the system before it breaks?

    What many companies (Apple, Andrew Sullivan, Nest) have realized is that people will pay not to be harassed, and that it can be profitable. The problem, of course, is that Facebook and Google have trained people not to trust them, because their business model is typically at odds with what’s best for users.

    So, how can they foist a new platform on top of a rotten ad model?

  3. I agree with both you and Fred that it’s odd that there appears to be this sudden lurch by some influential big players to move beyond mobile, social and ads. Cloud and big data software infrastructure have both been “incubating” for the past 7+ years and are now finally emerging in a form that can serve as the foundation of a New Industrial Revolution that is going to reshape not only the physical world and its industries, but possibly also capitalism itself (see Jeremy Rifkin’s new book “The Zero Marginal Cost Society” coming out in a few days). Yesterday’s Google Cloud Platform announcements reinforce the view that many of us have had, that now is the time for this “new new thing”. In the next 12 months we’re going to see amazing new extreme-scale cloud data services emerging that are an innovative killer combination of internet of things, search, machine learning, and augmented reality technologies. I expect that we’re going to see a whole bunch of big new platforms as this New Industrial Revolution gets underway. Bill McColl.

    1. Well said Palo Alto Data. I think we are going through immense change and generational transformation. I am not surprised that everyone is open to trying new things and new approaches in this time of change.

  4. FB has the data, you can only reinvent the banner ad so many times to draw a few extra click throughs. Ad free is where things are headed. The disruption that will be the spark is a payment platform that processes small payments (i.e. $1) without the current 20-30% per transaction fee imposed by the incumbents.

    1. Peter

      payment innovation is something I believe will be done by Apple and Amazon as they have the mass market momentum to influence change in behavior.

    1. Thanks Fred. The interesting part of looking for the next platform is that when Apple went looking for a new platform, it looked at an old one and made it better. What is that we think these companies will make better. Historically Facebook and Google have been unable to create new markets and new behaviors, only took pre-existing behaviors and made them way better

  5. Is the purchase an “OppX” and therefore a factored and predetermined loss (R&D) on FB taxes? An educated gamble thus puts investors at ease while still remaining relevant?

    Conversely; more or less the same tactics taken by a16z that propelled them into 1st place in founder relevancy , while many other VC’s lead the market in total return to their GP’s?

    OM: What do you think?

    1. I don’t think those two are the same things, but I feel that future relevancy is important to everyone who depends on influx of fresh talent to keep growing their business.

      1. True. The next question is how long can Zuck keep the OR team engaged. Will he fully assimilate their team/ tech or will he allow them to operate as a sub entity with its own budget, R&D, board and the like? It will be interesting to see what the future brings.

        1. Given the history of Facebook, I am pretty sure they are going to be left alone and this free from any impact. My two cents

  6. Greening, It would be great if more people actually rebelled against being “advertised” too and went for paid models. I for one, have no problems for paying for a service that makes my life easier.

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