31 thoughts on “Nokia & Microsoft's real challenge”

  1. You are correct, there is room for concern and both companies have to make the effort to re-tell their story to consumers in a compelling way. That said, I think you should consider a few other important factors moving forward:

    1. Not everyone has a smartphone. There are still many around the world moving up the socio-economic ladder who are increasingly capable of purchasing more expensive devices. Those in developing markets where Nokia has historically had a huge brand preference may continue that trust into the smartphone arena. It may not garner the Wall Street hype they need for their stock, but it will drive revenue up. It wasn’t too long ago that Nokia was still holding its own with Symbian, despite clearly superior offering in the marketplace.

    2. While Android is getting better, there does seem to be many still frustrated with its usability. If the UI paradigm that MSFT can be introduced properly, it might be enough to prompt people over to the new experience. I would say that people with older Android devices about to get caught up in a replacement cycle through their operator could be extremely vulnerable here. Expect Nokia to be aware of this and fight extremely hard at POS.

    1. @Jeremy. I am not sure how Nokia is going to fight extremely hard when they have absolutely no date for a US release. Nor they have gotten any US carrier to sleep with. I remember, Nokia used to get this killer hardware on it’s Symbian devices, but couldn’t get any single US carrier to sign up for a subsidized devices. Do you remember Nokia N97? The price tag at Nokia.com/us was 650$!
      I agree with Om here, that the users even with the short comings of Android and for that matter the stale design of iPhone and iOS, prefer that then having another learning curve throws at them.
      Microsoft with all it’s money thrown at BING, still can’t make a dent in Google’s search, even when the results are the same.

      1. Good point, but Nokia was relevant globally without having a significant U.S. presence. It wasn’t that long ago that they were on the verge of having 2 out of 5 phones sold globally go to them. This was with LOW double-digit share in the U.S. Despite a lot of recent OS development coming from the States, it’s not as if the rest of the world was following them as a role model.

        Nokia has a carrier problem in the States, i.e. they pissed them off in the past and some like Verizon seem to still enjoy watching them pay. Nokia refused to make concessions to U.S. carriers on custom UI’s, services, etc. Whether right or wrong, they held their ground and now are paying the consequences. If Nokia can rebuild that relationship, the rest is gravy. iPhone-mania aside, the majority of U.S. consumers are more driven by what their operator tells them at POS. If the big guys finally decide they like Win Phone over iPhone, trust me, they will start pushing it hard. There are chances here for Nokia.

        Oh, and MSFT Bing…now has 30% of U.S. searches if this article is to be trusted. It’s a bit more than a dent. 😀

      2. Mac OS X has lower market share than Bing. A healthy alternative should be welcome in every arena. The mobile space has room for three major players.

  2. @Jeremy, good argument there.
    But for your first point, the developing countries that has Nokia as a huge brand preference are slowly turning to Samsung. I live in the Philippines and I’m seeing more Samsung phones now compared to Nokia. Also, these countries still prefer cheap phones as opposed to top-of-the line smart phones. Samsung and China have unlocked Android phones for less than 150 USD. If Nokia can beat this price with its Windows phones, it may have a chance to steal some market share. If not then it’s going to be one uphill battle for them.

    1. Hi Lemuel,

      You’re absolutely right, Nokia used to dominate down in the Philippines to the point it was embarrassing. They used to have similar shares in Indonesia that was eaten into by RIM (surprisingly) and India by Chinese domestics. And you’re absolutely right about the low-end, which I think Nokia will continue to play in, but I’ll leave out of this particular discussion.

      Nokia (I believe) will find way to push down the $150 price point soon with MSFT’s help of course. I would argue though that some of those that shifted to Samsung/Android have done so based on the lack of any good offer from Nokia. As they re-arrive to the market with a modern OS, you could see them win people back purely based on their marketing strength and some left-over brand loyalty.

      For the record though, I do not believe they are going to get back to the good ol’ days of close to 40% market share globally. They playing field has changed too much to allow that, but I do think they can carve out a nice, hopefully profitable piece.

  3. Have you even tried a windows phone? The interface is intuitive, there is nothing to learn really. It just works.

  4. I think that this article misses the most important point of all, desktop OS. Windows dominates the desktop market and that’s not going to change any time in the foreseeable future. When Windows 8 releases, sporting the Metro interface, a lot of people are going to become accustomed to the interface. That familiarity is going to be very attractive down the line when considering mobile choices, whether it be tablets or phones. Also, don’t forget that Xbox will also be sporting Metro and that will just expand the exposure. Anyone who can’t see what’s coming for WinPhone better open up their eyes.

    Where Nokia will fit in remains to be seen, but considering their experience, aesthetics and build quality, I’d expect them to be just fine.

    1. Stu makes an important point here. Once win8 is out, most of the world will be used to the new UI concepts. On top of that the smooth integration with live gaming is a huge thing for most young people. There is definitely a challenge for Nokia and microsoft here, but I willl be surprised if they will fail. Their competition doesn’t look too good these days: google is doing too many things and hasn’t been successfull in resolving basic UI issues in android, apple’s last iOS5 update is the worst SW release they have done in the last 5 years.

    2. “When Windows 8 releases” – How was the adoption rate on Vista already? Don’t count your chicks before they’re hatched. People are replacing their home computers by tablets and smartphones, so there’s a good chance that people will delay replacing their computer and instead purchase a tablet. Businesses might go for Win8, but chances are they’ll pre-load it with Metro disabled, but even that will only be months after Win8 has launched, as companies carry over all their legacy applications and programs.

      Another thing is that Metro is very, very awkward to use without a touchscreen. How do you “swipe” with a trackpad? How do you “pinch-to-resize” with a mouse? How do you avoid scrolling like crazy (up-down mouse scroll is left-right screen scroll for some reason) when you’re looking for a file/photo/program when the screen only takes about 20 icons in a go? Chances are, when Win8 comes out, it’ll come in two “flavours” : Metro-inspired for things with touchscreens, and classic for ones without. The only hitch is that right now there aren’t that many touchscreen desktops/laptops, and I can’t see them suddenly booming come Dec2012. Gorilla arm and all that.

  5. Om, I am sure you have used a Windows phone -powered smartphone, right? Your post makes it sound like WP7 would be something totally different (and with “totally” I mean so different that user would need to invest own resources to learn it).

    Anyone who has used WP7 knows that the interaction model in WP7 consists of same elements as iOS and Android (touch, gestures and apps). Sure – the overall concept of tiles in WP7 is different from the “grid of icons + standalone apps”, but I would be willing to claim that it does NOT force a learning curve for the user.

    WP appears fluid and continuous which is quite different from iPhone,Android and their apps, where the connecting factor is merely the transition animations.

    I think you are right in speculation weather WP concept forces software writers to adopt something totally different (I don’t know since I am not a coder / sw designer for mobile phones). But if there is big difference – that might have huge implication to software makers’ willingness to write for WP – AND it might have implication to quality of WP apps (a secondary platform will always get less attention; and corners will be cut). It’ll be a bit like running apps designed for iPhone – or small screen – in an iPad. Yes, they work, but the experience is just wrong.

    But for consumers – I am pretty sure the WP UI will not be a big threshold to cross.

    1. Aki

      Thanks for your comment. I think the point I am making is that we as a group tend to cluster around certain user interfaces and it is a challenge for nsoft for those precise reasons. I am not saying that Microsoft phone is difficult. I am saying it is different.

      As for software developers, they will be dealing with very unique user experience as well and that is a challenge.

      1. One somewhat overlooked point is that sometime later next year (probably) there will be coming the first of some 300+ million PCs with a very similar user interface.

  6. The core premise of this article — Nokia/Microsoft phones’ interface is foreign and unacceptable to users because they are too different from the iphone interface and therefore present too steep a learning curve — does not hold water. 1) They are not that different: The UI of winphone and iphone are variations on the same basic concept of touch, animation, and app-centric icons, just like windows and mac are. 2) Vast majority of the people in the market for a smartphone either do not have one now, or had their device for just a few years. Learning a new interface with basically the same concepts would not be nearly as hard.

    Om, you did a fine job explaining why Winphone fail to attract you, but you are projecting your own experience far too wide.

      1. Om, per Gb, its ok to agree to disagree but your premise is:

        “we are living in a post iPhone and post-Android OS world and as consumers we have become used to interacting with mobile devices in a specific manner.”

        However, keep in mind that at the iPhone 4S rollout, Tim Cook had a slide showing that the iPhone has just 5% worldwide share of mobile phone “handsets”. Recall Cook said something like “I could have shown the bigger smartphone numbers, but we believe over time all handsets become smartphones”. Also Om, remember when Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone in 2007, there was banner their web site (or maybe it was on stage when he delivered the keynote) and it showed an Apple rising with the words “The next 30 years”. So, I think you are being too presumptuous in your prediction. However, this isn’t to say that Microsoft-Nokia will be successful. btw, have you seen Ed Tufte’s assessment of the Microsoft windows phone 7 UI? He rightfully whales on it (for example it wastes valuable screen space on the right side with many pixels being black just to show a stupid arrow pointing to the right to get you to swipe). If would not be surprising if the crappy UI put out by Microsoft dooms the MSFT-Nokia venture and so let’s see Apple continue to whale on them!

        1. Eddie

          Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Excellent points and counterpoints to my argument. Let’s just wait and see how it rolls out. I am not going anywhere and in six months we should have a clear sense of how it is all working out.


    1. @gb I agree. When a user first comes to Windows Phone they think that the tiles are just icons like they are used to on other systems. I’d be very surprised if anyone was put off by windows phone because they thought it was too different. At the end of the day it’s salesmen in phone shops that sell phones to customers and it has been well documented that they have been pushing android.

  7. Microsoft’s approach would be flawed except for one important point: It’s simply easier to use. I haven’t read one tech reviewer who felt Windows Phone was more difficult to use or learn than iOS or Android. Shouldn’t that be the point of OS evolution…ease of use?? In any case, Google’s ICS is moving closer to Microsoft’s Metro design.

  8. Might be as simple as Microsoft is not sexy anymore, so sales will wane.

    When MS were the only kid in town (realistically speaking) we would wait eagerly for a new OS to play with. Now, not so much. There are lots of cooler things out there.

    MS got their Mojo through many questionable practices, so what remains to be seen is if they can get it back despite no longer having the positioning whereby they can strong-arm the world into doing things the MS way.

    I think they have lost their relevance and won’t get it back. They will churn out business-class stuff that will sell in that market and the XBox will hold on for a long time, but that’s about it.

  9. Looks like the Wii and PS3 will sell more than the Xbox 360 in the next months thanks to the new iteration of the Metro based UI that will arrive in Nov. And since the populace is not ready for this type of iteraction, Xbox is done.

    Stupid analyst. Looks like I can do this job, too. 😀

  10. i switched from the iphone to a windows phone and do not regret the switch. first, my aging eyes can simply read things on the screen much better. second, i love the email and text apps (especially the fact that receiving a text while in the car causes the app to read the text and accept a voice reply) along with search.
    it took about an hour to get accustomed to the new UI. since then, i havent missed the Apple UI at all. With mango the phone is even better and my teenager has switched to the windows phone as well because he likes the facebook integration much better. (we have every variety of iphone in the house so are quite familiar with every OS and hardware variant).
    to be honest, i have played with various flavors of android and not liked them. i would choose iphone or windows phone over android.
    for now, i am sticking with my windows phone. i am very happy with it.

  11. If we assume that gaining traction in the U.S. is critical to Nokia’s success, then they face an uphill battle. As mentioned, carriers already have it out for Nokia, but this is made worse by Microsoft’s acquisition of Skype. Any moves that would help enable Skype to become an over-the-top play in the mobile environment is undermining the Voice cash cow upon which the carriers are dependent for 90% of their profits.

  12. A conveyor belt of tiles…albeit some interesting tiles…..vs a conveyor belt of columns and rows of icons. WP7/WP7.5 is basically an iPhone wanabe…..a walled garden ecosystem. Apple already has that market sealed tight. And Android has taken the open/customizable market to the moon.

    WP7/WP7.5 misses on so many fronts. Carriers are only willing to put up with one prima donna…Apple…when it comes being locked off the phone. To be perfectly honest…what’s in it for the OEMs? No way to differentiate your phone from the Nokia phones MS is going to have to favor. And finally….Om’s point….put in the simplest terms…UI fatigue.

    I wanted to like the WP7. But at the end of the day…to little/to late. Finally, I will not consider an Apple or MS phone for as long as they fight the battle for smartphone supremacy in the court room….rather than the market place.

  13. I think Jeremy makes some very strong points here. I would add only the following: 1. the idea of a new interface being designed as a tiles and a downward scrolling screen is hardly new nor is it difficult for a consumer to figure out and 2 Nokia’s strength is its manufacturing ability. Rest assured the phone will achieve the requisite price point for mass market. The bigger issue with Nokia historically has been that they don’t understand consumer design and they don’t invest in software effectively.

  14. One other point I would add is that Nokia’s ascent historically has been due to the fact that they backed GSM and GSM was predominantly a European/Asian standard. The US opted for CDMA and that is largely why Nokia had a limited presence in the US. Alot of their efforts to amend this were too little to late but it didn’t matter as most of the world was behind GSM.

  15. You are right most people are following along with what they are told to like. Ironically innovation is said to be praised, and used in comparison, to put products down as inferior, rather than as the positive of a new concept. And so when real new concepts emerge the masses cling to the familiar for fear of entering the unknown, “change”. Its funny that even in the fast paced leading edge industry of computer tech, human nature still needs time to catch up, The learning curve. But don’t worry I’m sure that since the launch of WP7 hub concept, the other OS makers where struck with an awe moment, and started working to integrate, and plan for redesign of their OS’s, Code takes time, but its obvious to me, just as a GUI was to Dos. When Steve Jobs toured Xerox and was blinded by the GUI as being the future, I think WP7 also was an “of course”, breaking out of box thinking for him. So next gen OS, will end the isolated app, as it begins to disappear into an integrated whole system, where power is gained through synergy of programs connected in an OS. As in the past Apples twist on Microsoft’s concept may well be the one that blows the followers minds, and is hailed as the great innovation. Android has already started UI change in the Ice cream sandwich OS, that shows WP7 influence. Wp7 is a pleasure to use, but in a mass population the majority will by nature be followers, so few have had an open mind to see for themselves WP7. It takes using the product! adding your personal information to realize how nice it is. Its in using the system that I appreciate how integrated, fast, and simple it is to use. Rather than arranging icons or widgets or ring tones, colors, which is kinda fun to play with, but actually using it as a tool to do something. Its little details integrated throughout that make it easy, plus the design looks great.

  16. With Windows Phone, Microsoft completely abandonded the business users, and went entirely out to copy the iOS consumer strategy. With Windows 7/8, they have the best handwriting analysis. With Wacom, they have the best digitizers, and n-Trig is getting better, too. They refuse to put this technology on their phones. Plus, they’ve given up on phone keyboards. We need handwriting analysis / digitizers for meetings and field work, and MS has thrown us under the bus completely. MS could have their own amazing system that works together for business and students, but they refuse. It wouldn’t have to stop with meetings. I’d like to take a picture and have it automatically insert into my Word or Powerpoint document. I’d like to sketch and make drawings on a 4.7″ MS phone, and then bring it over later via cloud into my MS laptop. The list of business applications could go on an on, especially since we already use MS PC’s. MS could win this market segment but they don’t seem to care at all anymore.

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