Google 4000? Why Not?
All right folks its official: silly times are back…. a few weeks ago some put a $575 price target on Google, and I blanched. Then yet another new price target from yet another analyst. Google $600. Today Mark Stahlman, an analyst at Carris & Co. comes and puts a price target of a whopping $2000 a share (said loudly in the voice mimicking Dr. Evil from Austin Powers.) Crazy? Absolutely! Paul Kedrosky is going out on a limb and saying so what’s another $2000 among friends and wonders if $4000-a-share for Google is a possibility. It is all silly and dangerous! Why? Just read this accompanying story from The Wall Street Journal.
[Google vice president Marissa] Mayer said the impetus for Google Pack was the frustration of Google’s two co-founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, with installing basic software on new personal computers they purchased.
Blimey…. is that a reason for introducing a product? Bizzare… don’t you think. All Google punters are going get their shins kicked….. hard.
Heck, what do mere Wall St. analysts know. I will out raise them all. My price target for Google is ONE GOOGOL (1.0×10^100). Ironic, eh?
i don’t think we can top that…. can we.
Sure $2000 or whatever, but what is the rational behind arriving at that figure ? The only one I can think of is $20 EPS which is achievable if they grow at 100% over the next two years.
In 100 years time, we will look back on Google as we do now on the great Tulip Bubble and Ponzi Pyramid Scheme.
At 2000 the market cap would be 592 billion dollars, that’s almost as much as the GDP of Australia.
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html
Somebody buy them some PowerBooks.
There is no reason why a product cannot be successful simply because company founders reckon they would like to buy it themselves: it’s worked fairly well for Steve Jobs at Apple.
However, I agree that Google’s founders might have to try a bit harder than a software bundle to up the numbers – and the share price – by any significant amount. That is unless we just slipped back 10 years time and everyone forgot to tell me it’s 1996 all over again.
The Google price is an expression of the future. If U beleive in the future buy. If you believe in the past lose.
I like the Google Pack updater. It reminds me of “apt-get” for Windows. It’s something that Microsoft should have built into the OS from day 1.