2 thoughts on “MCI, AT&T Write-Offs: IP forced their hand”

  1. I agree that RBOC writedowns are only a matter of time, not if.

    It should be obvious to the casual observer, because it was obvious to me at least 3 years ago. Also VZ signaled pretty loudly today that they can’t find private buyer for excess wired access lines, so they are going to put some lipstick on them and push that pig into the IPO market. ROTF, Silly bankers will do anything for X-mas bonus.

    But the order of pain in telecom is:
    1) IXC’s
    2) RBOC’s
    3) WSP’s (wireless, for readers in Rio Linda!!!)

    As VZW and Cingular rips out AMPS/TDMA/GSM and transitions to CDMA and W-CDMA, massive erlangs (capacity) will be coming to market.

    I predict we’ll see only two survivors/winners? in wireless: VZW and a merged Nextel/T-Mobile.

    As a point of reference, VZW announced monster operating metrics this morning by growing NetAdds 3x all the other carriers.

    If players are not carefull somebody is going to windup owning a largely empty network, and that’s not the objective.

  2. CS, how do you see T-Mobile plus Nextel happening? I haven’t heard that DT is either eager to sell (and Nextel is soon going to fork over a bunch of cash to move to 1900) or buy (and when you buy Nextel you just get customers, thanks to their incompatible network). To me the logical combination is Sprint + Nextel or Verizon + Nextel. I see Sprint as willing to give up waiting on EV-DV and go Flarion with Nextel. As for Verizon, unlike Sprint and T-Mobile their network is good, so they can quickly move users over without worrying about whether they can offer the same service quality. T-Mobile is in the bad position of having nothing to offer but spectrum and low-end customers, neither of which is worth as much as DT paid for it.

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