[qi:006] A few days ago I wrote a post for NewTeeVee, wondering if the promise of millions of channels over broadband is delusional and more importantly unprofitable. There have been many arguments that have been made about the Long Tail and niche content, I have remained unconvinced that anyone but the distribution platform makes money. And while it is easy to create and distribute video, making a living out of it as tough.
This morning, Liz has come up with her counterpoint, and argues that these are early days and the” money may not be there yet” but it will come. An old fart’s cynicism and optimism of the youth – now that is worth debating about.
* Can broadband replace old TV, cable and satellite TV?
* Counterpoint: Content Made for a handful of people.
At the heart of this debate is that video is becoming a new, standard form of communication — no longer just a specialty. Needless to say, that has vast implications, including what happens to the economics. It may be that Om is pretty close to right. Who makes money today on the written word and documents derived from it? Books and paper generate revenue, but regular old daily documents don’t. Does that model apply here as well?
I have my doubts that there will be billions of channels – at least not that has a real niche. There will be lots of garbage content, just like there has always been. But I do expect a proliferation of niche content. With the ability to watch shows when you want and how you want, niches will be better able to support their favorite shows – instead of having to choose between two shows at the same time. Also, the need for studios (such as ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX) will diminish and with it the sudden cancellation of shows that cast, crew, and fans want to continue. While it is still about money – show producers oftentimes care about shows for more than that – and where a network may have deemed the margins too slim a cast/crew may be more than happy.
Insightful post. This inspired me to write a post on similar lines, trying to explain how we really CAN have 3 million channels without much stress on the current storage systems. You can read my post here.