[qi:___wimax] WiMAX, despite losing attention and mindshare in the U.S., seems to be thriving across the planet. Business Standard, an Indian newspaper, reports that Huawei, Telsima and Alvarion are three of the companies shortlisted for the $1 billion WiMAX network being built by BSNL, the state-owned Indian telecom company. With Nortel (s NT) and Alcatel-Lucent (a ALU) having retreated from the WiMAX market, one wonders: Who is going to win the WiMAX equipment sweepstakes?
At present, Alcatel-Lucent is the leader, followed by Motorola (s MOT) and Alvarion (s ALVR). “The WiMAX market will be leaner in 2009, leading vendors to rationalize their strategies,” Richard Webb, analyst with Infonetics Research noted in a press release, adding that “there is evidence to suggest that both Huawei and Cisco (s CSCO) are coming up on the outside lane.”
With Motorola in disarray and Alcatel-Lucent backing away for the WiMAX market, the battle seems to be between Alvarion and Huawei. Huawei has one big advantage: a cost/quality story that makes a lot of sense for carriers in the emerging markets where WiMAX is being adopted.
| WiMAX: Some Stats & Fun Facts |
|---|
| Global WiMAX subscriptions will reach more than 85 million by the end of 2013, according to In-Stat. |
| According to Infonetics Research, the total WiMAX equipment and device market in the fourth quarter of 2008 was about $275 million. |
| In 2008, the number of fixed and mobile WiMAX subscribers hit 3.9 million. |
| Total global deployments are around 460 in more than 135 countries, including fixed, portable and mobile networks |
| Sources: In-Stat, Infonetics Research, WiMAX Forum. |
If I had to take a bet, I would place the odds on Huawei. Government backing has allowed the Chinese equipment maker to buy its way into the telecom market. In price-sensitive emerging markets, Huawei will continue to buy market share by competing aggressively with rivals on price. Even though Alvarion has a big fat order book for 2009, I wonder how long it can really keep up with Huawei’s sustained efforts to buy market share. Cisco, on the other hand, will find its typically high margins working against it in emerging markets.
Key WiMAX Developments for February 2008
With additional reporting and research by Brendan Gahan.
Om,
Alcatel-Lucent just won an important WiMAX contract in Cambodia, announced at the MWC.
ALU has not retreated from WiMAX. ALU has simply re-positioned WiMAX as a solution for nomadic wireless broadband that makes an excellent fit to provide broadband in emerging markets, such as India or South East Asia, where copper penetration is very small, making DSL too costly.
ALU has reinforced the industry consensus that the natural evolution of 3G to 4G is LTE, leaving WiMAX as a complementary rather than competing solution for wireless broadband, specially in places where fixed DSL is impractical.
BTW, as you may know Om, ALU was selected by Verizon for LTE in all 3 domains of the network. A sign that ALU come-back with the new management team is rather soon than late.
Do I need to add any disclaimer here? 😉
Watch ALVR. They are the clear leading company in this space.