Who is getting bought next? YouTube, Facebook?

20 thoughts on “Who is getting bought next? YouTube, Facebook?”

  1. Facebook is not a sustainable business, it’s a fad. Sure it’s bringing in close to $100M in yearly revenue, but will that be the case in 10 years? How about 20 years? I bet most of you laugh when you hear MySpace and Facebook and “10 or 20 years” in the same sentence. 🙂

  2. Rising M&A activity might be evidence of the media industry facing disruption. When CEOs can’t figure out how to deliver growth on their own, investment bankers and shareholders nudge them along to consider big ticket acquisitions.

    Other warning signs of disruption which may apply in the media sector:

    * Customers stop appreciating and paying for innovations they used to value;
    * Strange niche suppliers start gaining share;
    * Tried and true management techniques fail;
    * A growth gap emerges between shareholder expectations and what management thinks it can deliver;
    

    More at:
    http://www.ondisruption.com/myweblog/2006/09/mediama_warnin.html

  3. You would win the bet, Greg – I have no need for Facebook, that’s what AIM, phones, and e-mail is for. I know who and where my friends are, why do I need a service to tell me? 😉

    My area of interest is emerging technologies that will shape the way people interact with computers… Those are the types of innovations that last over 10, 20, and +30 years (PC, operating systems, etc.). I’m sorry, but I just can’t see Facebook being worth $1B when there are far greater opportunities both in the present and future.

  4. I agree that its only a matter of time before facebook is shut down. As soon as they open up to non .edu registrants the exclusivity is gone and people will migrate to niche sites that cater to their interests (dogster, mimun2, upoc etc.)

  5. It should be noted that over the long-term, most major acquisitions tend to result in decreased value for shareholders. I certainly hope, as a Yahoo shareholder, that this is a case of the WSJ not wanting to pull the story. Yahoo buying Facebook for this insane amount when its recent announcement indicates there are other major problems that need to be resolved would be a sign that management is not acting in the best interests of its shareholders. If this happens, I will sell my Yahoo holdings and move my money into a well-run company that shows restraint as opposed to desperation when it comes to acquisitions of companies, especially those that have been shown to have major vulnerabilities and questionable long-term prospects.

  6. Is the % users of in each age bucket a reasonable stat? Assume they merge. Multiply the 173M audience by the share percents to get # users in each bucket. Add FB to Y, then regenerate the %s.

    The new yahoo’s % breakdown then looks like this:

    Age

    Old Yahoo

    Merged
    Difference

    12-17 years old
    14%
    13.9%
    -0.1%

    18-24 years old
    34%
    32.7%
    -1.5%

    25-34 years old
    8.6%
    10.1%
    1.0%

    35-44 years old
    12.3%
    13.2%
    1.1%

    45-54 years old
    21.1%
    21.7%
    0.6%

    55-64 years old
    5.3%
    5.8%
    0.8%

    65+ years old
    2.3%
    2.5%
    0.4%

    Doesn’t appear to really shift the age groups significantly.

  7. Why are they for sale? Because, investors & founders are not stupid. YouTube in particular is burning cash & their model will never make money.

    Forget about numbers such as 100m download per day etc. These numbers can go down to zero very fast.

    Good luck to any company who spends $1B! They will need it!

  8. So let me get this straight. Yahoo basically announces that ad sales are declining yet is justifying paying $900 million – $1 billion for a company with around $50 million in revenues (hoping to be $100 million next year) based on the assumption that it can increase Facebook’s ad sales significantly? Seems like one of the dumbest moves Yahoo management could make, especially since Facebook opening up to everybody is going to alienate their audience. Why doesn’t Yahoo fix its current problem before going out and betting that not only is it going to increase its internal ad sales but is going to be able to do it significantly on an acquisition?

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