Big Growth for the Internet Ahead, Cisco Says

54 thoughts on “Big Growth for the Internet Ahead, Cisco Says”

  1. 3G is the third generation of mobile phone standards and technology, superseding 2G. It is based on the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) family of standards under the International Mobile Telecommunications programme, IMT-2000. 3G technologies enable network operators to offer users a wider range of more advanced services while achieving greater network capacity through improved spectral efficiency. Services include wide-area wireless voice telephony, video calls, and broadband wireless data, all in a mobile environment. Additional features also include HSPA data transmission capabilities able to deliver speeds up to 14.4Mbit/s on the downlink and 5.8Mbit/s on the uplink. Unlike IEEE 802.11 networks, 3G networks are wide area cellular telephone networks which evolved to incorporate high-speed internet access and video telephony. IEEE 802.11 (common names Wi-Fi or WLAN) networks are short range, high-bandwidth networks primarily developed for data.

  2. It is the exponential growth predicted by the law of Accelerating Returns.
    Still surprisingly, the capacity of flash cards doubles every year, and so it will do the number of cores in a chip processor, the hard-drives capacity and even the broadband bandwidth we enjoy at home (compare the 256kbps ADSL offered in 2002 with the 10-15Mbps you can get in 2008 and do the maths of growth).

    With HD getting into mainstream in the coming years, and entertainment industry totally digitalized, Cisco predictions could even stay short. I am sure we will find plenty of applications to load the computers of tomorrow: link

  3. “Traffic on the world’s networks will increase 46 percent from 2007 to 2012, nearly doubling every two years.”

    46 percent over 6 years would be 7.6% per year, pretty modest.

    Om, I think you mean:
    Traffic on the world’s networks will increase 46 percent annually from 2007 to 2012, nearly doubling every two years.

  4. hmmm….interesting predictions – but thats all they are predictions – lottery predicitons is what we need… wouldnt take a genius to predict that internet usage will continue to increase in the near future. everyones making money out of the high usage of companies – so many providers now offering isp bonding, even qos bandwidth management to priortise and shape traffic, fibre being deployed in uk areas, internet link load balancers, voip providers, data compressioners, mpls the list is endless……………………………..now would these people really exist if internet usage would grow……?

  5. Anyone know of any studies tieing broadband growth to storage growth? I see lots of similarities – wouldn’t be surprised if they’re proportional.

    Makes sense, don’t you think? A certain percent of info passed back and forth gets kept

  6. A few comments:
    1. Cisco’s global forecast is entirely in line with Pioneer Consulting’s forecasts although it should be noted that there are significant variances on a regional basis. As Om rightly points out, China is growing fast (faster than the global average) while Africa is seeing around 30% p.a. growth.
    2. Broadband penetration in China expressed as a percentage may look small but given the size of the Chinese population it still makes a signficiant contribution to overall bandwidth demand. However you have to temper forecasts of demand from China for international Internet content with the knowledge that the censor is ever vigilant!
    3. I agree with Om that Internet traffic is “globalising” but I think that this is a very slow evolutionary process. North America remains the source for the great majority of Internet content and I don’t see the balance being tipped in favour of any other region or country in my lifetime.
    4. Broadband growth and storage growth should in theory be proportional but I think that this proportionality will only become clear when the market has matured. At the moment, I think we have only scratched the tip of the iceberg in terms of what the Internet can do for us as citizens and what it can do for corporations. New applications such as You Tube will skew the proportionality metric and so will corporations’ growing realisation that their data networks are vulnerable to natural disaster requiring more sophisticated disaster recovery plans. In our submarine cable space, people are building new cable systems to meet growing demand but they are also building route diversity. For example, TeleGreenland is building a cable which will connect Canada to Iceland via Greenland and Farice, a Faroese / Icelandic company is building a cable from Iceland to Denmark with a view to creating a diverse transatlantic route with data centers in Iceland running on low-cost geothermal power.

  7. Demand for bandwidth is set to increase with the increased popularity of the internet and e-commerce. Let’s hope web servers are able to support the enormous load of more than half a zettabyte.

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  9. WTF is a “new Nordic nation”?!

    Furthermore, what’s this crap about exabytes? Internet backbone capacity is measured in 10 Gbps wavelenghts. The Internet is not a frigging harddisk!

  10. Thank you for writing this article. Question – what impact do you think the recent economic downturn will have on these demand forecasts? From those that I’ve asked, I’ve heard (1) we’ll have to wait and see (2) no-impact (3) increased demand based on the changing environment. Anyone else’s thoughts would be appreciated.

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