26 thoughts on “Did Google Issue a Bear Call?”

  1. No more the 20-percent time for pet projects for engineers

    I have no inside info, so don’t know one way or another. But I’m pretty sure that’s not what the article says or implies, so I don’t think it’s something you can use to justify a dire conclusion. Here’s the quote and context:

    The company will curtail the “dark matter,” he says, projects that “haven’t really caught on” and “aren’t really that exciting.” He says the company is “not going to give” an engineer 20 people to work with on certain experimental projects anymore.

  2. I’m wondering how you interpreted the 20% time is canceled… I mean just because random projects are being put on ice, doesn’t mean 20% time has been canceled. Google employees spend 20% time on things like testing system, build support, and random things that aren’t related to their job.

    I’m curious now, I’ll ask someone when I can.

  3. Hey Ryan, I can save you the trouble. 🙂

    I’m a Googler and familiar with many 20% projects across the company. I’m not aware of *any* changes in policies about 20% time. I know for a fact that my manager continues to encourage people on our team to start up or join 20% projects.

    And certainly there’s been no change in the guiding principles of 20% projects: They should be…
    – Something the engineer is excited about
    – Of reasonable potential (strong) benefit to Google and its users

    20% time isn’t just a perk, or something “just for fun,” and it’s certainly not frivolous. These projects often give engineers insights (and new contacts within Google) that help improve their main projects.

    Hope that helps clarify stuff.

  4. In the interest of the economy, I think Silicon Valley needs to take a field trip to Main St. Seriously. Finding a way to Google frugal isn’t going to work. Wasn’t their old shopping thing actually called Froogle?

    It doesn’t even matter if you’re tech or “mommy blogger” as I see the unwillingness to give up the good times across the board, in these articles and in my own experience.

    In my brief membership in a blog group based in the SV, let’s just say my eyes were opened when I suggested we add a Toys for Tots drive to a launch party and was told no. Because? Someone had worked really hard on the swag bags. I wish this were a joke. Needless to say, I resigned my affiliation.

    So the 20% is more of an idea generation area?

  5. It doesn’t even matter if you’re tech or “mommy blogger” as I see the unwillingness to give up the good times across the board, in these articles and in my own experience.

  6. I would say a 65% stock drop is somewhat bearish.

    While everyone goes goo-goo ga-ga over Google, I think it’s time for a little push-back. After all, Google is turning into the Microsoft of the 80s/90s. Just ask Eric Schmidt: He was the CEO of Novell. He knows first-hand what a powerful company can do to a weaker competitor.

  7. @Ryan @Scott Lawton

    My bad and big mistake.

    “He says the company is “not going to give” an engineer 20 people to work with on certain experimental projects anymore. “When the cycle comes back,” he says, “we will be able to fund his brilliant vision.”

    is what he said and I totally messed up and misinterpreted it. Woke up in the morning and that is the first thing I realized.


    Thanks for clarifying. I apologize to you and all you Googlers for an obvious mistake.

  8. Ehhmm,
    knowing where the flu is and predicting where it will show up, are separated by a few levels of complexity.
    About economist, didn’t Krugman get a Noble prize for what boils down to a system of linear optimization. I just glanced at the equations, so correct me if I’m wrong. If I’m right, never ever put these equations to work in a complex (chaotic) system.
    In other words I assume Google has no clue, what’s going on and where it goes.

  9. Hey, thanks, Om. That’s part of why I continue to read your blog regularly; everyone makes mistakes, but not everyone has the professionalism to acknowledge them so respectfully and prominently.

    Take care…

  10. For 80% of businesses online marketing is and will continue to be the best option. Businesses still need to make sales to keeps the lights on. The alternative is to hire a $120k + commission sales people. Google will do very well!

    If I was Schmidt I’d also hint of slowing economy, blah, blah, blah. Why not? Everybody else out there is doing the same. Would it really matter if Google put out a GREAT report in these times. NO. The stock would rally for one day and then sell off even more the next.

    And speaking of Sequoia and other VC’s. Have any of them laid off any people? Have the GP’s taken pay cuts? What is it exactly VC’s are doing these days since they can’t invest and have no idea how to run a company?

  11. The smartest, longest lived, most profitable companies make a habit of racing revenue to the bottom, not chasing it. Google’s moves actually improve its ability to remain more profitable than the competition. In turn, that improves odds of thriving and increases agility to go where the early opportunities are on the way back up. All good, perhaps even great, business moves.

    Your analogy and assumption that lead to your “They wouldn’t be doing this unless things are really really REALLY tough.” conclusion have no basis in good business strategy. The best strategy is to get ahead of the curve, preserve profitability no matter what and guarantee your ability to come out stronger while others are dying around you.

    I’d re-write your statement to “they wouldn’t be doing this unless their risk management analysis concluded that things could get really, really tough.” Note that nothing they’re shuddering is on the direct path to any of the current, profitable revenue.

  12. @Scott,
    not to nick pick here. But what’s their “direct path to any of the current, profitable revenue” is it “racing revenue to the bottom”?
    Sorry I don’t get it.
    And which companies are so smart, I started to take money out of the market 2 years ago, since I looked at companies in disgust. Maybe now is the time to reinvest, I really don’t know about any “smart” company. But I know a lot of clueless disoriented ones.

  13. @ronald racing revenue to the bottom means aligning expenses to falling revenue ahead of the fall to wherever it bottoms out. That may not have come through clearly. There are still companies out there maintaining profit but the market isn’t rational enough to reward them right now. There’s a good podcast on racing revenue to the bottom over on managertools.com — no stock tips in there though, just better explanation of the concept.

  14. It doesn’t even matter if you’re tech or “mommy blogger” as I see the unwillingness to give up the good times across the board, in these articles and in my own experience.

  15. @scott
    can’t find it on that side. But if I understand you correctly it’s not a race, two or more parts moving independently. It’s a action reaction relation, where you want to drive down the reaction time.

  16. @ronald sort of. I’d say it is pro-active, not reactive. The idea is to lower expenses faster than the fall in revenue so you never become unprofitable. If you remain profitable all the way down in a down economy, you’re poised to take advantage of the opportunities the downturn creates and you’ll be the first, and most, profitable on the way back up.

    You can also find Manager Tool podcasts on itunes: http://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?i=43092885&id=74198801

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