5 thoughts on “Telecom's Titanic Shift: How the Mighty Have Fallen”

  1. Om – Could this be because most of the carriers see a declining Wireline Revenue added here which masks their Wireless growth. For example, ATT had wireless growth with data penetration increasing but maybe a decrease in wireline revenues. So, comparing them to operators who are pure Wireless might not be apples vs. apples. But, the overall message does make sense.

  2. And wireless revenues in North America are going take a hit over the 18-24 months as people continue to drop out of existing plans and go to pre-paid services to save a couple of bucks…

  3. This isn’t so much about large versus small, but rather about whether the companies have a significant presence in mobile (which is still growing in most places) and whether they are participating in emerging markets. The fastest growing operators (but also often the least profitable) are those serving emerging markets.

  4. Great information. Goes to show how the overall decline in consumer and business spend is affecting these giants.

    One quick note, Verizon’s revenue growth if you include the acquisition of Alltel puts them above that 10% revenue growth. Not including it, their revenue growth is not as impressive. With $65B in debt now and the capex costs for deploying FIOS, it will be interesting to see how they perform for the remainder of 2009 and in to 2010 from an EBITDA and cashflow basis.

    Thanks for the insightful information.

  5. A corollary that comes to mind is
    Japan growth led to NEC and Fujitsu enjoying a big chunk of that business
    EU growth lead to Ericsson and Alcatel
    US Growth led to Cisco and Lucent (which then became ALU) – you could argue Cisco drove the market as well here to start with.
    China growth enabled Huawei and ZTE

    The last big geography left is India – which is split amongst the players above today – but is it the right time for an India focused Telecom company or too late.

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