Why TV Won’t Die?

6 thoughts on “Why TV Won’t Die?”

  1. I think it’s about the content. There are a bit too many internet-hippies which believe in “vlogs” and “citizen media” – the country/world doesn’t give a damn. They want to see well-scripted, professionally-developed, entertainment, not this “guy in the living room” shit. There are way too many people stuck in their own world right now.

  2. Brandon — Well said. Note that watching TV, a movie in a movie theatre, or reading a book is not passive, the consumer is really involved IF (big if) the product is good. What will kill TV, podcasting, or blogs for intelligent people is junk. (There will always be many millions of people who are happy to just kill time by consuming junk entertainment, hence the trash that dominates TV and cable now.) I find Om Malik’s blog to be just about the only one in its topic worth reading — wide ranging and very intelligent. You learn something by reading the site. Presumably in time other blogs in the topic will drop out or just be ignored. People want to go to as few places as possible to be fully informed.

  3. That’s why I give podcasting about another 8 months. Podcasting is closer to a fad than HotOrNot.com – I’m not sure I would want to be Odeo right now (actually I would, because yahoo will mistakenly buy them)

  4. Here is the problem. Consumer taste is such that in order to create content with true mass appeal, huge amount of economies of scale & scope need to exist for the content creator. Furthermore, only content with mass appeal can recoup the tremendous amount of fixed capital invested in such a content. (a catch-22)

    Peer produced content can be viable in niche markets and it can be nicely profitable for the content creator. But to truly make a lot of money like today’s studios. You either need to be the aggregator of the micro-content (ie long tail) OR be creating content that has wide range of appeal (companies that already exist today).

    In the end, the “long tail” theory never said that the HEAD of the distribution will ever disappear because of rise of peer-production. If you dig deeper, in fact, the head of the tail is pre-requisit for the “tail’ to become viable – through cross promotion & networks effects. Today’s TV (the head) will not disappear because of peer produced content (the tail) will need it to prosper.

    More on this here . . .

    http://hitchhiker.blogsome.com/2005/07/21/gilder-and-blogs-will-inherit-the-earth/

  5. Well, it is clearly hyperbole to say that TV will die. After all, radio isn’t dead yet. That said, I think broadcast will continue to become more irrelevant (especailly in terms of specific “channels”). Om, I would say that PVR and VOD are not TV. To me, TV is broadcast. Once you introduce time-shifting you are not broadcast. Broadcast will always have a place (how can you beat the cost of a single satellite beaming to hundreds of millions of people), but it may become less and less the ultimate content delivery model as aggregation and time-shifting through PVR takes hold.

  6. Podcasting right now is mass chaos — thousands of individual shows with very few standouts. If George Gilder thinks TV will ever end up like that, he’s nuts.

    But.

    In the next decade or two, networks that don’t specialize in live TV may start moving from a broadcast model to an on-demand model. Some might even begin shifting to some form of RSS+BitTorrent for new series. (“This official Sci Fi torrent of Battlestar Galactica is brought to you by Verizon Wireless.”) Even if they do, though, there will still be TV networks, because there needs to be some orderly system out there to connect advertisers to shows and pay for production. Not everyone is going to pay $9.95/mo. for each individual network, a la HBO, if each one only has one or two shows worth watching.

    In fact, the podcasts that survive next year’s big shakeout will probably be affiliated with networks and associations (Podshow, AMP, TSFPN, etc.) that build their audiences and develop new advertising models over time.

    And there will always be live broadcast TV, too, because nobody’s going to wait to watch the Super Bowl on TiVo three days later.

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