13 thoughts on “The Perils of the Prediction Game”

  1. I think your analysis about Samsung might urn out to be wrong. HTC in my opinion will turn out to be a major player in the mobile space. Look at that their track record, they came out of no where. Also, in my opinion their build quality and overall user experience is far superior to Samsung’s. Check any good mobility blogs and the EVO’s still considered as a top contender in the Android space even 6 months after it’s release which in today’s product cycles is quite a feat.
    Apple on the other hand is going to see fierce competition on all fronts. iPhone was a great product, because it started a game that no one seemed to be much interested in playing at that point. It was such a huge success because the majority of the US consumers didn’t even have an idea what a smartphone was, and were stuck using feature phones. Just go back and take a look at what the US carriers were offering when the iPhone was introduced.

    1. Ed

      Similar assertions were made about Apple’s iPod and well, that turned out well for the competition.

      I still am confident that Samsung is going to cause problems for the other two. Mobility blogs, as you mention them, never factor in issues such as component supply chain and capacity constraints.

      How about same place, same time.

  2. Bad pundits continue to thrive because we prefer to listen to optimists even if they are proved wrong, than to pessimists who turn out to be right. Furthermore, the rewards for wide-eyed optimism are far greater than for rational pessimism.

    1. Jonathan,

      I have been resisting and making new predictions. It is not that I don’t want to, but it is just that the complexity of our world makes it difficult to be smart about everything 🙂 I need to pick and choose.

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